My model failed and everybody else succeeded. France won and my model lost (and climbed comfortably above Romania in the Fifa/Coca-cola index. But, that is too late form me, the model advised me and I am £2.00 poorer.

Figure: my financial position after the first day:

And for today, my money is on:

• Switzerland winning Albania (Paying £1.80)
• Draw in the game between Wales and Slovakia (paying £2.90), and
• Russia not winning England (Draw pays £3.5 and a tie pays £1.9)

And the probabilities from my model versus Betfair are provided below: